Force 08 / Markets & Policy
The numbers improved. The terms did not.
Growth is up and inflation is down, while the cost of borrowing stays priced for a worse story.
Where it stands
A better year, on the numbers.
Sub-Saharan Africa grew 4.1 percent in 2025, up from 3.6 percent the year before. Inflation eased to 3.4 percent, down from 4.3 percent.
That is a genuine improvement on both of the measures that policymakers are usually judged by. It has not translated into cheaper money.
Part of the reason is at home. Private credit has fallen to 29.4 percent of GDP, from 39.8 percent in 2018, because banks find government bonds the simpler loan. That leaves the project loan open to any lender able to price it.
Part of it is external. A region is priced as a block by investors who rarely distinguish between the countries inside it, so a good year in one place is discounted by a bad headline in another.
What decides it
What decides whether policy is believed.
Repetition, not announcement
A single reform announcement moves nothing. What moves pricing is a rule that survives an election, a currency shock and a change of minister.
The currency window
Before returns, an investor asks whether money can leave. Where repatriation is slow or rationed, the required return rises to cover the wait, and marginal projects stop clearing.
Trade rules against trade friction
Continental trade rules lower tariffs. Most of the actual cost of moving goods within Africa is not tariff. It is border dwell time, documentation, road blocks and the cost of financing inventory that sits still.
What outsiders miss
The problem for most African sovereigns is not the size of the stock. It is the maturity wall: too much falling due in too few years, in a currency they do not print.
What it means
Repetition is what repricing rewards.
Terms follow a track record, not a good year. Several African markets are now several years into being dull in exactly the right way. That is when the cost of capital starts to move.
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